Can a team that can't shoot free throws win an NCAA championship? Although Memphis snuck past Mississippi State last night to earn a berth in the Sweet 16, the Tigers were exposed for their horrendous free-throw shooting. It seems that Memphis will have to play infinitely better than its competition to overcome its nasty Achilles heel.
I am of the opinion that Memphis will not cut down the nets in San Antonio because of its abysmal free-throw shooting. My colleague Greg Johnson, who is a lifelong Tigers fan, disagrees with me. Throughout the day, we will have a conversation about the topic on the blog. Please share some comments with us on the topic as we spar, and make sure to vote in this week's Double-A Poll as well.
Josh: There is no way Memphis can win a national championship while shooting 58 percent from the free-throw line. With nearly four minutes left in yesterday's game, Mississippi State head coach Rick Stansbury had his team begin fouling and the Bulldogs were able to claw back in the game. This strategy will eventually work, maybe in the next round, when Memphis has to face Tom Izzo's savvy Michigan State squad.
Greg: It all depends on who is at the foul line for Memphis. If it is Joey Dorsey, then that strategy has a good chance of working. Memphis isn't going to shoot that poor of a percentage every game. They shot around 72 percent in the NCAA tournament last year, and they shot a similar percentage in the C-USA tournament a week ago.
Josh: Sure, Memphis has some free-throw shooters better than others, but 58 percent as a team doesn't get it done. Remember Derrick Coleman in 1987? If he hits a free throw, Syracuse wins a national title. That's just an example, but everyone seems to think when the pressure's on Memphis will get it done at the line, but couldn't the bright lights make it even worse?
Greg: It's just that I prefer to look at all the things Memphis does well to offset the free-throw shooting flaw. For example, the Tigers are one of the best defensive teams in the country, a fact that is rarely brought up by the analysts. Also, Memphis only had five turnovers for the entire game against Mississippi State. Memphis had 19 offensive rebounds and outrebounded Mississippi State (41-32) for the game. There is no rule that says the team that misses a free throw can't get the offensive rebound and score on that possession. Is it an ideal situation? No. But it can be overcome with other strengths.
Josh: Why don't we use this year as an example? In Division III, the Howard Payne women's team won the national title, shooting 75.8 percent from the line this season. The men's champ, Washington-St. Louis, shot 71.5 percent from the stripe. Memphis does a lot of things well, but now we're in the Sweet 16, and a lot of teams do things well. Games often come down to free throws at the end, and Memphis trails the entire field in that category.
Greg: I'm glad you brought up the Sweet 16. Last year in San Antonio, Memphis guard Antonio Anderson was at the foul line with his team trailing by one point to Texas A&M. He made both shots and Memphis advanced to play Ohio State in the regional final. Anderson shoots in the 60s for his career at Memphis, but at that time he was 2-for-2. A guy could be an 80 percent shooter, like Texas' D.J. Augustin, who airballed a free throw in the final seconds against Miami on Sunday. No one would have thought that would happen. I've seen Memphis succeed at times at the line and I've seen them atrocious at times. But I can't argue with a 35-1 record that includes an 8-1 mark against teams that made the 65-team field.
Josh: The argument that good free-throw shooters can miss and bad free-throw shooters can hit is lacking. Memphis has taken 846 free throws this year and has hit 505. Averages may not catch up in one game, but there are four left before a national championship - the averages will hurt.
I don't argue Memphis' ability - the Tigers are 35-1 and earned their No. 1 seed. Unless I'm wrong, Memphis has only had two games this year decided by five points or less. The team's record in those games? 1-1. Averages baby, averages.
Greg: Memphis played nine teams in their non-conference schedule that made the 65-team NCAA tournament field. The fact that only two of those games (USC and Tennessee) were decided by five points or less shows the characteristic of a strong team. Would I prefer that Conference USA was a stronger league? Yes. But the reality is many of the institutions left the conference to join the Big East. So to compensate, Memphis has to test themselves with games against the likes of Georgetown, Connecticut, Arizona, Gonzaga and Oklahoma. All of these teams offer different styles to prepare Memphis for potential opponents in the tournament. Memphis shot well from the free-throw line in some of the games, and not so well in others. Yet, they found a way to win with the exception of the Tennessee game that came down to the final seconds. Whether a guy on your favorite team is an excellent or poor free-throw shooter, you are still going to have that fan nervousness about whether they will make it during a tight game.