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February Madness - Live Blog Day Two - Feb 07, 2008
posted by: Josh
10:21 a.m. Eight hours later, here we are back in the NCAA national office. This time, we have a group of television broadcasters from across the country prepared to go through the selection process and put together a mock bracket. We went through a live blog for the entire selections process yesterday, so we’re not going to do the same exact thing today. Most importantly, we want to look at any differences that emerge between the two brackets and exactly why they’re there. This should help us understand what the true variables are come the actual selections in March. There will be less text today, but more pictures and multimedia content. I’m really hoping to chat with Joe Lunardi, ESPN’s resident bracketologist, who is here taking part in the process today. 10:50 a.m. Just like yesterday, teams of two will represent one committee member. Here's today's roster: • Steve Scheer (CBS)/Andy Katz (ESPN.com) – Tom O’Connor, committee chair 11:02 a.m. Today’s bracket will take into account all games played through last night. Here are the scores of some key Division I games from yesterday: Memphis 77, Southern Methodist 48 11:23 a.m. ESPN's Mike Kelley just asked if margin of victory is ever considered in calculations. The answer is no, but good losses are factored in. As a Syracuse fan, here’s hoping good losses include those against Connecticut, Georgetown, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, etc. This is a bit different from football, where margin of victory does factor into calculations for the Bowl Championship Series. 11:34 a.m. Just like yesterday, 15 teams have already won conference tournaments and received automatic bids to the tournament. They are the same group, which will give us consistency as we compare the brackets at the end of the process. Here are the early entrants: Atlantic Sun – Belmont 11:58 a.m. Pete Gillen is raising a lot of questions about Syracuse as he tries to grasp how the selection process works. He wants to know how the close losses to quality teams like Georgetown and Connecticut would be evaluated by the committee. 12:14 p.m. Something I didn’t address yesterday is what the initial balloting screen looks like. Right now, I am sitting next to Clark Kellogg and Joe Lunardi, who are going down a screen with all 328 eligible Division I programs listed. Each program has two options (at-large or consideration). Of course, you don’t have to choose any. After each committee member submits the initial ballot, the two lists are compiled and we begin working. 12:27 p.m. Thanks to Jerry Palm for pointing out an incorrect statement I made a few minutes ago. Apparently, the BCS doesn’t consider margin of victory as a determining factor in its standings either. I didn’t realize that. 12:45 p.m. Here are the 20 teams chosen for at-large berths. Yesterday’s initial at-large list had 18 teams on it – Kansas State, Notre Dame and Texas A&M are considered slam dunks today, while Pittsburgh dropped off. Arizona 12:50 p.m. Syracuse and West Virginia were the only two teams unanimously placed under consideration. Neither made yesterday’s bracket, so this is an interesting turn of events. There are 69 teams under consideration – 60 if you subtract those regular-season conference champions generated by the NCAA staff. Yesterday we had 58 teams on the consideration list, or 49 without the regular-season winners. 1:16 p.m. We just finished lunch - pulled pork, fried chicken and potato salad. This is a hungry bunch...all of the pulled pork was gone. 1:18 p.m. Prior to lunch, I sat down with ESPN Bracketologist Joe Lunardi. Joe didn't elaborate on where he went to medical school for his degree in bracketology. Listen to Joe Lunardi 1:23 p.m. Steve Lappas just asked if it matters if a team has a good player. Selecting a team based on wanting to see a certain player in the tournament doesn’t happen. 1:28 p.m. The committee just elected to remove the nine regular-season conference champions from its consideration list. All nine were selected as an exercise by the NCAA staff. The schools were: Alabama State 1:42 p.m. Here's the bracket from yesterday's mock selection: 1:59 p.m. One difference I’ve noticed from yesterday is the increased discussion that has transpired at this early stage in the process. Perhaps it’s because we have three coaches in the room (Pete Gillen, Steve Lappas and Tom Brennan), but there’s just a lot of chatter. It seems that this is more indicative of true committee deliberations. 2:06 p.m. Mississippi and Vanderbilt tied for the final spot in the initial “rank eight.” Andy Katz raised the fact that Ole Miss beat Vandy, 74-58, on January 30. Both teams have also played South Carolina, with Vanderbilt grabbing a win and Ole Miss picking up a three-point loss. 2:08 p.m. Mississippi won that debate and becomes one of the teams in the initial "rank eight." The top four of these teams will move over to the at-large list: Baylor 2:11 p.m. Gonzaga, Louisville, Marquette, Mississippi and Purdue also made the first “rank eight” yesterday. Notre Dame, Kansas State and Texas A&M made the first grouping yesterday, but this committee already put them on its initial at-large list. So to recap, it seems that we’ve started along the same lines as yesterday. 2:23 p.m. The following four teams were moved to the at-large field: Baylor Of the eight teams considered for those four spots, seven were ranked eighth out of the group by at least one committee member in the room. That shows us exactly how much opinions vary among experts in college basketball. 2:25 p.m. There are now 24 teams in the at-large field. The committee is debating which four to add to the remaining four from the first “rank eight.” 2:26 p.m. Steve Lappas just said he saw Syracuse play live on Saturday and he thinks the Orange are very good. Remember, Syracuse didn’t even make the field yesterday. 2:29 p.m. The three p's are in the room - pretzels, popcorn and potato chips. 2:35 p.m. Here are the eight teams now being ranked: Clemson Four will move over to the at-large list, which will give us 28 teams in the field (excluding the 15 AQs). 2:43 p.m. These four teams have been added to the field: Mississippi Gonzaga returns to the at-large nominee board since it passed through two “rank eights” without being admitted to the field. The Zags can be selected for the next rank eight, but at this point, they go back to the consideration list. 2:44 p.m. Pete Gillen just called the process "thorough" and says his "head is spinning." Although we've been here for five hours, Steve Lappas acknowledges that in the grand scheme of things, we're moving quite quickly. 2:52 p.m. A comment was just made about how the process is significantly "more human" than was originally expected. 3:08 p.m. The committee is now seeding the top line of the field. 3:17 p.m. The committee selected these eight teams and will rank the top four to determine the No. 1 seeds: Duke 3:27 p.m. The top four seeds in the tournament, in order, are: Memphis 3:33 p.m. There’s a debate on Drake right now. The consensus is that they are certainly a tournament team, but don’t merit a No. 2 seed. Drake was just compared on the board with Indiana. Some believe Drake’s profile looks better than Indiana’s. 3:45 p.m. These eight teams are being considered for No. 2 seeds: Georgetown 4:06 p.m. The tournament’s No. 2 seeds are: North Carolina 4:09 p.m. During a break a few minutes ago, I caught up with former Xavier, Providence and Virginia head coach Pete Gillen, who is now an analyst for CSTV. Listen to Pete Gillen 4:21 p.m. The following eight teams are being considered for the No. 3 line: Arizona 4:23 p.m. Here are the four No. 3 seeds: Stanford Remember, the seeds can be changed later on. 4:24 p.m. We're going back to selections. 4:34 p.m. There’s a big conversation going on about Davidson, which lost close games to UNC, Duke and UCLA by a total of 22 points. Davidson also has lost to Charlotte and Western Michigan. Do the good losses make Davidson one of the best 34 at-large teams? 4:43 p.m. Clark Kellogg and Joe Lunardi are helping to build the field of 65.
4:50 p.m. Here are the eight teams now being considered for the at-large field: Arkansas 4:56 p.m. I want to compare yesterday’s bracket and today’s to this point. The No. 1 seeds have remained the same in the two brackets. Yesterday, North Carolina, Tennessee, Georgetown and Stanford were the No. 2 seeds. Today, North Carolina, Tennessee, Georgetown and Michigan State earned the nods on the No. 2 line. In yesterday’s bracket, Michigan State was a No. 4 seed. 5:03 p.m. These four teams were added to the at-large field: Arkansas We now have 32 in the field. 5:05 p.m. Four conference winners were just announced: Albany – America East 5:09 p.m. Because there are conference championships still to be decided, there are additional at-large spots that will open up. We have 32 at-large teams in the field right now, but we will need at least six more. 6:07 p.m. These eight teams are being considered for the at-large field. Four will be selected to give us 36: Dayton Clark Kellogg is speaking for the Orange right now. He thinks they're a solid team and likes the strength-of-schedule. West Virginia was just pulled up on top of Syracuse. Of course, the Mountaineers won the head-to-head. 6:14 p.m. West Virginia won the head-to-head but someone just said that Syracuse has three players better than anyone on the Mountaineers. A couple folks have said that on a neutral court, they’d rather play West Virginia. Others seem to think Syracuse is getting better as the season goes on. Remember, performance in the last 12 games is a factor. 6:16 p.m. These three teams have gotten in to the field: Dayton Florida and Syracuse are in a tiebreak for the 36th spot. There will be at least two more at-large spots available. 6:17 p.m. Syracuse is now in the tournament. The Orange didn't make it in last night's bracket, but the close game against a solid UConn team may have helped, despite the loss. Although it's a mock exercise, this fan was on the edge of his seat during that discussion. 6:31 p.m. Conference winners were just announced: Charlotte beat St. Joseph’s to win the Atlantic-10. The Memphis win means we need at least two more at-large teams for the field of 65, perhaps three. 6:36 p.m. A couple of interesting comments were just heard during a debate. One person said they first look at how teams have fared against others in the top 50. Another said he wanted to know “which team was hotter.” 6:40 p.m. Someone just said that he was a “road-win guy.” These different opinions on what is most important really help us understand the human element of the selections process. 6:42 p.m. We are about ready to finalize the at-large field. These eight teams make up the final "rank eight." The top two will be in. California 6:49 p.m.Oregon won the Pac-10 tournament and gets an automatic bid. West Virginia, Florida and Maryland were just added to the field. The at-large field is complete. 6:53 p.m. A window of reconsideration has been opened on whether St. Joseph’s should be in the field instead of West Virginia, which grabbed the final at-large spot. 7:00 p.m. Now the conversation has shifted back to whether or not Florida should be in. 7:04 p.m. A vote was just taken to replace Florida with California. The vote was dead even, but all but two needed to vote for California to make the switch. 7:05 p.m. The conversation about Florida, California, West Virginia and St. Joseph's continues in full force. Dinner has been sitting outside for almost an hour. 7:13 p.m. After four votes and serious lobbying, Florida has been removed from the at-large field. If the Gators win the SEC tournament, they can still get in. 7:16 p.m. It's time for dinner. After the break one of these five teams will get the final at-large bid: California 7:45 p.m. Before we got back in the room, I checked in with Clark Kellogg. Listen to Clark Kellogg 7:55 p.m. California is now in the tournament. If Mississippi beats Florida in the fictitious SEC championship game, St. Joseph’s will get in to the field. 7:59 p.m. We are back to seeding. 8:06 p.m. These eight teams are in the running for the No. 4 line: Arizona 8:11 p.m. Here are the No. 4 seeds: Connecticut Reminder - this has nothing to do with bracketing. We are just seeding right now. 8:16 p.m. Two more conference championships have been decided: Sam Houston State won the Southland Conference title. 8:17 p.m. These eight teams are being considered for the No. 5 line: Drake 8:20 p.m. These four are No. 5 seeds: Louisville Drake, at 20-1, still hasn't been seeded. Last night, Drake was a No. 5 seed. 8:24 p.m. Andy Katz is posing as committee chair Tom O'Connor.
8:26 p.m. The ice cream bar has just been delivered. 8:34 p.m. These teams are being considered for the No. 6 line: Drake 8:36 p.m. It seems we've taken an impromptu break - there are about eight people over at the ice cream table. 8:41 p.m. These four teams have been chosen as No. 6 seeds: Texas A&M 8:45 p.m. These teams are being considered for the No. 7 line: Baylor 8:47 p.m. Here are the No. 7 seeds: Pittsburgh 8:50 p.m. There are the teams being considered for No. 8 seeds: NCAA Vice President Greg Shaheen just pointed out that the mock seeding is happening significantly faster than it would with the actual committee. 8:53 p.m. Florida beat Mississippi in the SEC tournament final, so the Gators end up in the field after all. That means that St. Joseph’s does not get in. 8:55 p.m. These four teams will occupy the No. 8 line: St. Mary’s (California) 9:05 p.m.These teams are being considered for No. 9 seeds: Arkansas 9:08 p.m. These are the No. 9 seeds: Arkansas 9:21 p.m. These are the No. 10 seeds: Ohio State 9:23 p.m. It’s interesting that Florida grabbed a No. 10 seed after all of the debate that had eliminated the Gators from the at-large field. That said, this is still an initial look, so Florida can potentially drop. 9:34 p.m. Here are the No. 11 and No. 12 lines: Dayton BYU 9:39 p.m. Like last night, the NCAA staff filled out the fourth quadrant to speed up the process. If you remember, the actual committee forms a sub-committee to make recommendations to the full committee on the bottom 17 teams. In this exercise, here is the fourth quadrant: No. 13 seeds: Cornell No. 14 seeds: Hampton No. 15 seeds: Belmont No. 16 seeds: Arkansas-Little Rock The opening-round teams: Albany 9:41 p.m. The seeds are now being discussed. Texas and Wisconsin just flipped spots, with Wisconsin taking over the No. 10 overall seed in the tournament and Texas moving to No. 11. The rationale was a Badger victory over the Longhorns. Both teams remain as No. 3 seeds. 9:44 p.m. Rhode Island was moved to No. 40 in the field. The Rams were at No. 34, so everyone in between moves up one spot. The big change for now is that Ohio State goes from No. 37 to No. 36, making the Buckeyes a No. 9 seed. 9:46 p.m. Oregon and California just swapped spots. That moves the Bears from a No. 9 to a No. 10 and vice versa. 9:47 p.m. A motion was made to move Dayton into the 30s. The motion failed. 9:54 p.m. Here's some conference breakdowns: West Coast - 2 It's quite difficult to fit eight teams from one conference in the bracket because of adherence to policies and procedures, so the bracketing process could be interesting. 10:04 p.m. We are now bracketing. The primary thing the committee is keeping in mind as it assigns seeded teams to sites is to make sure lower-seeded teams don't have a home-crowd advantage. That only applies to the first round. Once we get to regional play, all bets are off. 10:18 p.m. When you get to the fourth line, there are complications in making teams fit. A lot of the issues stem from the fact that conference teams can’t match-up in the draw until the regional finals. There’s also the issue of balancing the regions after the first round lines. Right now, we have the first 12 teams assigned to regions, but we’re a bit stuck with the fourth line. 10:24 p.m. Here are the top four seeds in each region: East (Charlotte) Duke Midwest (Detroit) Kansas South (Houston) Memphis West (Phoenix) UCLA 10:54 p.m. Balance considerations were important through the first four lines and so were travel considerations. As we mentioned earlier, the committee has to adhere to certain restrictions with regard to teams from the same conference – that adherence continues throughout the bracketing process. 11:37 p.m. The bracketing is done. Fifty-nine teams made both yesterday and today’s fields. The six teams that moved into the field tonight are Albany, California, Cal State Fullerton, Charlotte, Syracuse and West Virginia. The six teams that moved out of the bracket are Davidson, Massachusetts, Pacific, UMBC, UNLV and St. Joseph’s. A PDF will be made available as soon as possible. Here are the 65 teams selected through the mock exercise: Albany Here's the bracket from the second mock selection: 
CommentsJosh, Is this mock selection purposely prolonged into the wee hours to mimic the anxiety, exhaustion and intensity that is put into the real selection process or is this just naturally happening in real time? Likewise, from your experience last night are the decisions as seemingly thought out and well discussed as you think they will be (or have been) during the real selections? Is getting out at 1:30 a.m. early or late? Is there a different dynamic in the room today because of the different personalities? I wouldn’t say it’s purposely prolonged – the actual committee begins deliberating on the Wednesday before Selection Sunday. This is a condensed version of the exercise, but it still takes a tremendous amount of time. Exhaustion, anxiety and intensity were all part of the process last night – mostly because nobody wanted to leave out a deserving team full of deserving student-athletes. Even though it was a mock exercise, it was still gut-wrenching for the participants. Last night, the question was posed if the actual committee had more in-depth conversations. The answer from Senior Vice President Greg Shaheen was a resounding yes. He said there are sometimes conversations about one individual team for hours on end. That wasn’t possible yesterday, even though we were here until 2 a.m. Wow, two good questions to start day two. It’s hard to tell about the dynamic yet, Mimi, but I will focus on that as we progress. Josh, Is there any discussion that takes place regarding the tournament or is it simply the selection process. For example, has the issue of expanding the tournament to include more than 65 teams come up? Please elaborate on issues that might be discussed if this is a part of the process as well. This is simply a mock exercise regarding the selections process. Any of those ancillary issues would be dealt with through the NCAA governance structure. Does the extra discussion mean that the process is taking longer? Will the staff do other things to expedite the process like they did yesterday? We'll have to see...we are behind where we were yesterday through the first four hours. Tell jerry palm that because the BCS uses human polls in its ranking, margin of victory is a factor - although not a direct factor. But to say humans don't consider margin of victory in their rankings is absurd. For the same reason, the basketball committee likely uses margin of victory indirectly. Again, when you boil it all down, it's simply the opinion of people, which has to be influenced by margin of victory. In the case of a Syracuse or a West Virginia, I know that technically they shouldn't consider the high profile exclusions from last year's NCAA, but does that enter the thought process at all with the committee in your opinion? Great question. There is absolutely no consideration for which teams didn’t get in off the bubble last year or in previous years. Additionally, Florida wouldn’t have an edge on the bubble this year because it’s a two-time defending national champ. Josh, Aaron, I would say that the participants are absolutely passionate about the choices. What we found yesterday is that it becomes increasingly intense as the at-large spots dwindle down. Both groups haven't wanted to take opportunities away from student-athletes if they truly deserve to be in the field. We've been told that this sentiment is the same with the actual committee. There haven't been any heated exchanges, but I will say that today's group has some of the most outstanding basketball knowledge you could imagine. It's kind of mind-boggling how much these folks know about every team - I think that would also be reflective of the actual committee's knowledge. Josh, It seems that Purdue was admitted into the field much earlier than yesterday's mock. What is the feeling for the Boilermakers with this group of basketball brains? Hey Josh, I just looked at the mock bracket from yesterday and think that the committee did a terrific job, overall, especially given the relative short period of time that they had to complete everything. Maybe they should abduct the real committee and meet again in March. One question that intrigues me. Has RPI entered the discussion much, either yesterday or so far today? Has there been any discussion about what its value is as a tool? If so, what's the consensus? Have teams RPI's been compared at all in determining at-large bids or seeding? Good question Matt. Purdue was admitted earlier today, but we don’t know where the Boilermakers will end up quite yet. I asked Clark Kellogg what he thought about Purdue and he seemed high on the team. He says the Boilermakers are tough, defend well and have a lot of scoring options. I think a number of people probably agree with Clark. Here’s the important point to remember: there is variance between this group of basketball experts and those that were here yesterday. Whew, Michigan State is a really weak two seed, imo. I hope these guys reconsider that choice before they finish.
Josh, Which school is being discussed as "the team nobody would want to play" so far? Have they even begun to talk about certain schools in this way yet? That discussion doesn’t really come up in that fashion, Matt. It’s more about evaluating the body of work of each team and figuring out who belongs in the field and who doesn’t. Essentially, once a team is put in the bracket and seeded, there isn’t any thought given to how the first-round game and the rest of the tournament will play out. Somebody did say that if Syracuse and Davidson went head-to-head, Syracuse would win more often than not. How much talk is there of evaluating a team’s conference? I've seen some bracket projections that have the ACC (Number 1 in the RPI) with only 3 teams in the field, due to a poor ACC record. Are the guys taking into account the difficulty of playing 16 games in a particular league? I really don't think it's fair to judge a 9-7 ACC team similarly to a 10-6 team in another conference who has a much lower conference RPI. Conference RPI is a factor, but one thing I learned last night is that the committee doesn’t look at how many teams from each conference get in the tournament while it is selecting. Last night’s bracket had four ACC teams in it, and it would seem to make sense that the best teams in the best league would generally earn a bid. I will note, however, that conferences with high RPIs could be top-heavy. There are a lot of factors that come into play – head-to-head match-ups, records against common opponents, strength of schedule, etc. It all goes into the process and doesn’t become a this-conference vs. that-conference thing.
Syracuse is very borderline, despite what Clark Kellogg might say. Look at how many home losses they have. Look at the fact that they've already played 16 home games! Yeah, their SOS is very good but they've also lost to most of the really good teams they've played. Okay, Syracuse AND Cal in the field is ridiculous. Cal has already lost five home games, including their last four in a row. Cal has played 14 or their 20 games at home. They even lost at home to Utah. Syracuse has four home losses and one road/neutral win over the RPI top 100. Yesterday's guys definitely did a much better job with this. Drake not being a top 5 seed is a crime. I'm signing off now. These guys obviously have no idea what they're doing. Rest assured, these guys are taking a heck of a lot of things into account. It’s interesting how the fields are differing between the two nights. Whether you agree or not, Todd, these are the kinds of debates and decisions made by the actual committee, which is comprised of 10 individuals who watch more basketball games each year than most people out there. These decisions are not made by computers and the conversations that occur can change seeds. Another note - Drake could conceivably move to the No. 5 line later in the night. The seedings now are preliminary. More discussion will occur. Go Orange! "6:31 p.m. Conference winners were just announced: BYU beat UNLV in the Big Sky." Wow... this group can't even get conferences right. BYU and UNLV are apart of the Mountain West, not the Big Sky. That might explain why this bracket doesnt make any sense. BYU Beats UNLV in the BIG SKY OMG this is what I mean about east coast bias......They play in the MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE......GIve san Diego state some love this is why i hate early brackets... It was just a typo and I take responsibility for the error. The mock result was stated correctly, but I was blogging fairly quickly. Sorry for the confusion, but I hope a typo doesn't make you dismiss the value revealed in the exercise. I am concerned that an auto bid winner determined early in the week (with an arguable shot at an 11 or 12 seed) could easily get shunted aside into a 13 seed as part of the 4th quadrant pre-seeding process. While watching how this was handled (and remember that the real deal lasts far longer and with more time pressure at the end), do you have any feel for whether it would be real easy for the committee to leave them in the 4th quadrant rather than debate whether they should be moved up at the expense of the last bubble team. The won their conf bid 5-7 days earlier, so there would have been no discussion of them as an at-large possibility. To all true reformers , this charade appears nothing more than placate-play for critical sportswriters. As previously stated, when almost the entire NCAA budget rides on ONE single basketball tournament, it is the true fool who cannot see that ad revenue runs the show. These 'hard-working' committee members answer to many stakeholders. Millions are on the line. Sure, they never take into account BCS conference affiliation. Sure. Wake up! Josh, Is the PDF for Thursday's Mock Bracket available yet? Matt - I will try and get it up tomorrow...I just have to separate it from a larger file. I will have it up by Monday at the latest. Stan – That is a fantastic question – hopefully this breakdown will answer it for you. The committee has 10 members and five form the sub-committee that looks at the fourth quadrant. You make a good point – that an AQ from early in the week could get put there and left there. But the sub-committee comes back with the fourth quadrant before the final bracket is decided and the entire committee then goes over it. There would be ample opportunity to move a No. 13 to No. 12 if the rest of the group felt so inclined. But it’s also important to remember that the committee meets all day Wednesday before the sub-committee meets for the first time on Thursday. It’s not a disjointed process at all. The amount of information that exists about all 328 tournament-eligible Division I teams is unreal – so when a team gets the AQ, the committee looks at its criteria just the same as the others to figure out where would be most appropriate to seed that team. Talk about the Midmajors from the west getting the shaft! UNLV already beat BYU by 30 in Vegas. They will likely do the same thing at the MWC tournament. The MWC regular season champ never is left out of the field. I think the big time sportswriters are hopeful BYU wins the tournament because it allows them to put another Big East team in the field. Then under your scenario BYU wins the MWC regular season and tournament and gets a 12 seed? That's like a Big Sky team winning both. Then St. Mary's as an 8 seed? Let's look at this profile: RPI of 22, only team to beat Drake, wins against Oregon and Gonzaga. Then under your scenario they win the WCC regular season and the postseason tournament. That's a three or four seed! Then no mention of likely WAC regular season champion Utah State? Admittedly, their profile isn't too strong yet, but they keep winning and for the same reason the MWC regular season champion is never left out of the field, the WAC champion deserves the same sort of consideration. Admittedly, I'm biased following this region, but I hope I'm not this disappointed come selection Sunday. Post a Comment |
  
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